Stablecoins, tokenised deposits and CBDCs represent the most significant payments innovation since electronic banking — examined here alongside how they converge with RTP networks and correspondent banking.
The emergence of stablecoins, tokenised deposits, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and programmable money represents the most significant innovation in payments since the creation of electronic banking. This chapter examines the technologies that may fundamentally reshape cross-border payments between 2025 and 2040, and how they compare and converge with RTP networks and correspondent banking.
| Category | Issuer Type | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Stablecoins | Private issuers | USDT, USDC, PYUSD, RLUSD |
| Tokenized Deposits | Bank-issued | JPM Coin, Citi Token Services |
| CBDCs | Central bank issued | Digital Yuan, Digital Euro, Digital Pound, e-Krona, Digital Rupee |
| Tier | Stablecoin | Issuer | Strategic Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | USDT | Tether | Largest global liquidity stablecoin; exchange liquidity, emerging markets, treasury settlement |
| Tier 1 | USDC | Circle | Institutional-grade; treasury, PSP settlement, B2B payments |
| Tier 2 | PYUSD | PayPal | Bridge between traditional commerce and digital assets |
| Tier 2 | RLUSD | Ripple | Enterprise settlement infrastructure |
The future stablecoin market is likely to consolidate around a limited number of highly trusted issuers, resembling card networks or global correspondent banking.
CBDC initiatives include Project mBridge (China, Hong Kong, Thailand, UAE), Project Agóra (multiple central banks, tokenised commercial bank money) and Project Nexus (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, India — connecting domestic RTP systems).
One of the most debated questions in payments is whether stablecoins will replace RTP systems. The reality is more nuanced: RTP solves domestic payment efficiency, while stablecoins solve global liquidity and settlement efficiency. The future is unlikely to be RTP vs. stablecoins — it will be RTP + stablecoins, operating as complementary layers.
| Attribute | RTP | Stablecoins |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Payments | Excellent | Moderate |
| Cross-Border Settlement | Emerging | Strong |
| Treasury Optimization | Moderate | Excellent |
| Global Reach | Regional | Global |
Correspondent banking is unlikely to be completely replaced, but stablecoins may significantly reshape liquidity management and treasury operations — key insight: liquidity costs often exceed transaction processing costs, so most correspondent-banking challenges relate to liquidity rather than messaging.
| Scenario (2030–2050) | Correspondent Banking Share | Stablecoin Settlement Share |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 75–85% | 15–25% |
| Moderate Adoption (most likely) | 55–70% | 30–45% |
| Aggressive Adoption | 40–60% | 40–60% |
A tokenised deposit is a digital representation of a traditional bank deposit issued by a regulated commercial bank. Unlike many stablecoins, tokenised deposits remain inside the traditional banking system — they are not new money, but a new form of existing bank money. Banks generally prefer tokenised deposits because they preserve the traditional banking model, existing risk controls and existing liquidity frameworks. By 2050, multiple forms of digital money may coexist: cash, bank deposits, tokenised deposits, stablecoins, CBDCs and tokenised securities.
The future of cross-border payments will not be defined by a single network or technology, but by interoperability across banks, wallets, RTP networks, card schemes, stablecoins, CBDCs and payment orchestration platforms. The most probable future is a hybrid ecosystem where banks remain critical, RTP networks expand, wallets proliferate, stablecoins optimise liquidity, CBDCs support wholesale settlement, and orchestration platforms connect everything together.
Primary: BIS, Circle, Tether public disclosures. Secondary: Chainalysis, Elliptic, TRM Labs digital-asset research.
